I Found a Bubble While Getting an Oil Change
Last week the computer system in my car “reminded” me (under no uncertain terms) the I was due for an oil change. The timing was perfect as I was literally driving to drop off my car at the dealership for just that scheduled maintenance. My service guy—we’ll call him Heinz—is the greatest. He treats me like a king (I highly recommend finding a service guy who is a big golfer and then dropping off a sleeve of balls every service visit 😊).
Heinz and I were shooting the breeze a bit while he was waiting for a service ticket and out of the blue he asked “the question.” Well, first he said: “Hey Jeff, can I ask you about something unrelated?” My mind always goes completely blank for a millisecond when I hear that question. Then, I check my watch to start billing my time (kidding). I replied the only way I could to the world’s greatest service guy: “Sure!”
Here was the question: “If a person’s crypto (digital currency) takes off and they suddenly have $30 million, what should they do?” Well, I admit that I didn’t see that coming…at all!! My first reply was a question back: “Has that happened to you, Heinz?” “Oh no,” he said, “but me and my friends have been investing in crypto for a long time, and we just started wondering about that question.”
Pretend you hear a big buzzer, and there is graffiti dropping from the ceiling right now, because that, my friends, is how you start to identify an asset bubble. When people who are investing in an asset start to daydream about the perceived problem of what to do with the $30 million they will make off that asset, then you know the asset is starting to stoke irrational excitement that will create irrational behavior. When they think it is important enough to run it by a financial advisor who is getting his oil changed, your eyes should pop wide open.
“Bubbles” are best thought of as a period when the value of an asset rises substantially above its fundamental value. Trying to determine something’s fundamental value is a challenge in and of itself, but when it comes to a bubble, I’m reminded of the famous quote from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in the renowned Jacobellis v. Ohio obscenity case. Justice Stewart acknowledged the difficulty in defining the word “pornography,” but famously stated “I know it when I see it.” The same holds true for me and asset bubbles. It is speculation at its highest level.
There have been many asset bubbles in financial history, one of the first being The Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble in Holland in the 1600s. The rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average annual salary in Holland. Needless to say, it ended badly for many who eventually lost it all, probably not long after they were daydreaming about what to do with their $30 million.
Now, I don’t know for sure if crypto is in bubble range, and/or when the bubble will burst if it is. I do know that the bitcoin I inherited from my 86-year-old mother (that still amazes me) has grown in value by almost 75% in the last year. I don’t own enough to start daydreaming, but if I did, I would think strongly about cashing a lot of it in to diversify. As Kenny Rogers famously sang about poker and life: “You got to know when to walk away, and know when to run.”
The stock market also seems to be going nowhere but up in recent months. While I wouldn’t attach the phrase “bubble” to the general market (yet), I would caution you to be ready for a pullback sometime soon. It may not happen this year, but a stock market pull back is and always will be inevitable.
I have a hard time getting my arms around crypto. I think it’s here to stay, but I don’t know how to value it because it doesn’t produce anything I can identify except convenience. That hasn’t stopped Heinz and his friends from piling more and more money into it as it continues its dramatic rise. Sounds like a mistake to me, but I hope I’m wrong because Heinz is a great guy and I know he’s had some health problems so he could use a windfall. If he gets it, my only regret will be that I’ll have to find another service rep who really appreciates a sleeve of golf balls.
Fun Fact: The Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble saw tulip bulbs selling for about 10,000 guilders at its peak. That equaled the value of a mansion on Amsterdam’s Grand Canal at the time. Tulip bulbs were bought on credit under the assumption that when the tulip bulb was sold the loan could be repaid. When a few loans defaulted, everyone headed for the door and the price of tulip bulbs crashed. Since then, history has repeated itself over and over with different assets rising into bubble range, only to come tumbling down to earth.