We’ve Seen This Picture Before

The headlines are enough to scare anyone:

“It Will Be Goodbye to the Office Worker”

“You’re Not Very Smart After All”

“The Human Brain is Not Obsolete”

The fears of AI are everywhere, ranging from how it may change our working lives to how it might be a danger to human life overall. It’s not something to be taken lightly, but then again, it’s also nothing new. The three headlines quoted above are all from the 1950s, when computers in general first began to be recognized for their potential in organizing and analyzing information, and for their potential danger to society.

We can also run through what I term the historical menaces. There was “The Radio Menace” headline from 1933 which Time reported on, when newspapers thought radio would spread incomplete or politically manipulated news and destroy traditional journalism. Even before that, we had “The Automobile Menace” which was a headline in 1917 in World News when the automobile was often described as a threat to life, safety, and the establishment of social order. (Wow!)

The human being’s ability to imagine, invent, and develop has no ceiling. The ability of man-made computers to analyze and perform increasingly complex tasks is a perfect example.

I think the threat is real regarding unsupervised AI development in a competitive environment where risk-taking is at its extreme. I also think the pain of certain jobs becoming obsolete is real and those workers need to be handled favorably.

But I also want to point out three things that AI is already doing positively:

1. It’s helping doctors detect cancers and other diseases in medical images and identifying promising new drugs. It’s helping to monitor patients and reduce administrative work that consumes doctors’ time. When used correctly, it supports, not replaces, a physician’s judgment.
2. It has expanded and accelerated basic knowledge and expertise, including inexpensive tutoring, instant translation of languages and the explanation of complex subjects in plain English. As a personal example, we had a problem with the pilot light for our gas fireplace at our cabin up north. Our first response was to call the “fireplace guy” who installed it, but when we received no follow-up reply it dawned on me to take a picture of the fireplace unit and the wiring in particular. I uploaded the pictures to ChatGPT and it explained to me clearly what kind of setup I had and how to reset the pilot light, which I did in all of about five minutes. (For you DIYers, it involved more than just holding the button down until the thermocouple warmed up).
3. It’s providing more safety because it can help predict severe weather, detect financial fraud, and identify equipment failures early on.

During the automobile’s early boom, hundreds of American companies rushed to build the next great car. By one estimate, 253 manufacturers were operating in 1908 alone. Most disappeared, leaving a small number of dominant survivors.

The same situation exists today. Enormous excitement, hundreds of startups, competing technologies, overabundant investment. Yet no one knows which companies will become the Ford or General Motors of artificial intelligence.

There is a lot of talk of slowing down AI, which is not the first time technology has been asked to do so. When automobiles first appeared, the “Red Flag Act” in some communities required a person to walk at least 60 yards in front of the vehicle waving a red flag to warn horses and pedestrians. When revolutionary technology arrives, the human instinct is to make it operate at the speed of the world it is replacing.

Hold on tight, as things are a bit scary, but they are also unbelievably exciting. I fully believe that the best of human experience is still ahead of us.

Fun Fact: When electric lights were first installed in homes, many fixtures looked like gas lamps and pointed upward—even though electric bulbs did not need to. People were more comfortable with the unfamiliar technology when it resembled something they already understood.

A Waterway Filled With Heroes

I can’t believe it’s been 25 years since the 9/11 attacks. It was such a powerful event that I remember exactly where I was and what I was doing when the news hit. And I mean exactly. I was making a Michigan left turn on Woodward Avenue just south of Maple Road, on my way toward my office in Birmingham, when the radio announcer, who thought she was describing a small plane crash into the first tower, reacted on air to a second plane hitting the second tower.

Everything changed in a split second.  The hair on the back of my neck stood up. From that point on, the world was different.

There are many stories of tragedy and heroism surrounding the 9/11 attacks. I recently came across an inspiring story about boats and people from all types of backgrounds coming together to rise above. With all the angst that hangs over our country at the moment, I think it’s a good story to remember.

After the towers fell, bridges, tunnels, and much of the transportation system in Lower Manhattan had to be shut down. Manhattan is an island, so that effectively trapped hundreds of thousands of people. In the middle of all of the panic, U.S. Coast Guard Lieutenant Mike Day boarded a pilot boat and radioed for any available vessel to come and help.

And help did indeed come—from tugboats, ferries, tour boats, fishing boats, and private boats. More than 150 vessels ultimately responded, and the Coast Guard estimates that more than 500,000 people were evacuated by water in a matter of 9 hours. It was one of the largest maritime evacuations ever.

Even an old World War II veteran got to suit up one last time. One of the boats helping with the evacuation was the Sightseer XII, a Circle Line tourist boat that had originally been a Coast Guard cutter during World War II. Decades later, it was pressed into service again.

What I find amazing about the 9/11 maritime evacuation is how much of it was improvised in the middle of an unprecedented emergency. Americans on boats risked their lives and rose to the occasion to help others.

Twenty-five years ago today, America experienced one of the worst situations imaginable, but Americans responded in a truly inspiring and uniquely American way.

Inspiring Fact: Twin beams of light will shine from the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire from September 9 through 12, 2026, reaching four and a half miles into the sky. Inspired by New York City’s Tribute in Light, this display honors those lost, first responders, and veterans

The Windy City Tour I Didn’t Expect

Last weekend I drove to Chicago along with my wife and one of my sons for a wedding. I’ve been to Chicago countless times with my family, but whenever we make the final turn north around Lake Michigan and I eventually see the city from a distance, I can’t help being amazed. What a skyline!

My wife absolutely loves the architectural river tours (which she’s taken at least four times). As soon as she realized that there would be some downtime before the wedding, she signed us up for the tour. This was my first tour, and I was not quite as enthusiastic as she was.

I really went to make her happy and to enjoy a bit of time on the water, knowing I’d probably learn a few interesting things about Chicago’s buildings.

Turns out what I really learned about was American resilience and optimism. Driving in from a distance the Chicago skyline looks very orderly. As you get closer, you see all sorts of interesting buildings. Some are made of brick or stone with Art Deco designs, and some are glass boxes that are extremely modern.

The river tour taught me that there really isn’t a lot of order to the buildings. Instead, they are more of a record of fires, wars, depressions, financial crises, failed projects, and new technologies. They are also a reminder of second chances.

Lots of things went wrong during the times that Chicago expanded and developed. But Chicago had people who figured out how to respond to those problems.

I learned about the Chicago fire of 1871, which left approximately 100,000 people homeless and destroyed 2,000 acres. Nobody thought the fire could cross the river into the North Side of Chicago, but it did. Yet 20 years after the fire, Chicago’s population went from 300,000 to over 1 million. City planners responded by using more fire-resistant materials, adopting stronger building standards, and constructing one of the first skyscrapers, the Home Insurance Building, completed in 1885.

Then there’s the amazing direction of Chicago’s river. Chicago’s river used to flow into Lake Michigan. Because the city’s waste was dumped into the river, it created a serious health threat to the city’s drinking water. By constructing a 28-mile canal in 1900, engineers were able to get the river to flow away from Lake Michigan. They reversed the flow of the river! It was truly an amazing feat of engineering.

Our tour guide also told us the story about the proposed Chicago Spire, which was supposed to rise 2,000 feet above the lakefront and have 150 stories. Construction began, but then the project collapsed in the Great Recession of 2008, leaving a giant hole and deep foundation next to the river. For many years, it was a visible monument to a failed dream, but a 72-story tower is rising on the site now and completion is expected in early 2027.

A failed dream and abandoned foundation are becoming the base of the next structure to rise over Chicago.

The river tour reminded me that Chicago is a history lesson made of steel and stone. There are collapses, long pauses, and projects that never worked out. People lost money, businesses failed, and plans were abandoned. None of the hardships were imaginary, and none of the recoveries happened automatically.

However, as we left Chicago on Sunday morning after a truly beautiful wedding and I took one last glance back, I still saw a powerful city on the horizon pointing upward.

I think it’s good to remember that today’s headlines make it feel as though our problems are uniquely overwhelming. Every generation is faced with events that seem capable of permanently changing our country’s direction. Sometimes they did change the direction, but they never permanently ended the progress.

That river tour turned out to be a great lesson in optimism, which is particularly important right now for a long-term investor. War, inflation, political turmoil, and financial crises will not go away. But they have all been here before, and American businesses always find a way to adapt. Engineers solve problems. Entrepreneurs find opportunity and take risks. Abandoned foundations find new towers to support.

America’s advantage is not that we avoid adversity; it’s that someone always steps up to find the next solution. American companies keep building, and over time, America, despite all its challenges, keeps moving forward.

Fun Fact: I can’t talk about Chicago history without referencing Erik Larson’s book The Devil in the White City. It is a remarkable story about Chicago’s architectural history, centering on the 1893 World’s Columbian Exposition. The fair covered more than 600 acres, recorded more than 27 million admissions, and debuted the original Ferris Wheel, Chicago’s answer to the Eiffel Tower. The “devil” in the title relates to one of the country’s first known serial killers, H.H. Holmes, who was terrorizing Chicago at the same time. Great read!