The Quiet Start of Something Big

Good morning — I’m writing this a little earlier than usual today because something important feels like it’s accelerating around us. If you’ve glanced at the news this week, you may have noticed more headlines about artificial intelligence. Peggy Noonan’s recent Wall Street Journal piece, Brace Yourself for the AI Tsunami, and Matt Shumer’s Fortune article, Something Big is Happening, both point to the same message: technology is moving forward faster than most people expected. The tone isn’t panic — it’s awareness. And that’s exactly where I think we should all be.

The newest wave of AI isn’t just about robots or complicated computer systems. It’s starting to show up in everyday places — customer service calls, medical screenings, financial planning tools, and even the software that helps write emails or organize schedules. The big shift is that these systems are getting better at understanding language, recognizing patterns, and helping people make decisions. For many of us, this will feel less like “new technology” and more like helpful assistants quietly working in the background.

There’s a lot to be excited about. AI is already helping doctors detect diseases earlier, helping businesses reduce costs (which can lower prices), and helping people work faster with less stress. For those of us who didn’t grow up with computers, the good news is that most of these tools are being designed to be simple and conversational — more like talking to a helpful person than programming a machine.

At the same time, this is one of those moments where paying attention matters. Big technology shifts always bring opportunity, but they also bring change. Jobs will evolve. Scams will get more sophisticated. Information will move faster. The people who do best during big transitions are usually the ones who stay curious, ask questions, and learn just enough to stay comfortable with what’s changing around them.

My goal with this column is to help you do exactly that — stay informed without getting overwhelmed. AI isn’t something happening “out there” anymore. It’s moving into everyday life, and it’s moving quickly. The good news is we still have time to understand it, adapt to it, and benefit from it — as long as we stay awake to what’s coming.

More next Friday — bright and early.

Fun Fact: I didn’t write the column above. AI did. I spent about 2 minutes telling it about the context of my weekly newsletter, the age range and tech awareness of my readers, that I wanted the column to be both intriguing and uplifting, and to reference the articles I just read that motivated this topic. The only two edits I made were to the last names of the authors cited. I then asked ChatGPT for a title. Fascinating…

Chandeliers Are Fragile

This Up Early is about a person’s reputation, and how careful one must be with it. The Epstein file release brought this into focus for me. I’ve read all sorts of quotes from those whose names appear in the files. “Foolish” “Regretful” “Poor Judgment” and the like. Well, “If you get too close to the fire…” as they say.

As a former child sexual assault assistant prosecutor at the Oakland County Prosecutor’s Office, I have absolutely no sympathy for anyone who cozies up to a child molester like Epstein. Even those who didn’t cozy up are now being reminded of the “too close to the fire” saying as their reputations take a hit.

The Epstein situation is obvious, but care must be used in less obvious situations as well. Here’s my story: You might remember me writing about my friend Paul several weeks ago. He was the ultimate negotiator at the Prosecutor’s Office who was also the coffee connoisseur. He asked me to be in his wedding back in the late 80s when we were both assistant prosecutors. Paul had lots of “interesting” friends. Most of them seemed to whisper when they spoke. His bachelor party was on a Friday after work at a banquet center in Farmington Hills. Lots of “interesting” characters milled around at the party and I—renowned for calling it an early night even back then—determined the earliest possible time I could leave without being rude. When that time came (@9:30pm) I said my goodbyes and off I went—into my car and on home. As I was leaving the party, I noticed that the whole tone had changed. The curtains were being closed, and big tables were being unfolded for some cards and dice. Definitely not my thing.

The next morning, I awoke to the television news of a big gambling ring bust. Guess where? I figure I must have been about halfway home by the time they raided the place. Seems the undercover cops had been tailing the gambling group for quite a while. That was the beginning of the end for Paul and many of his buddies. They were never viewed quite the same again, and Paul fell into a terrible funk, to the point that he eventually lost his law license.

In some ways I lucked out, but I really believe I sensed that nothing good was about to happen when I left. I must confess, it was kind of fun to hear rumors about how I supposedly kicked out the bathroom window and jumped out just as the raid got started…just like James Bond! Not true, but intriguing, nonetheless. I kept just far enough from the “fire” that evening not to get burned, and it was a good reminder.

When I was a young attorney, one of my first mentors was Danny Goldsmith. A wickedly good trial attorney, Danny told me this: “Jeff, your reputation is like a chandelier. You build it slowly, piece by piece, over many years. But if you make just one important mistake, it will all come crashing down at once.” I’ve heard Danny’s voice slowly speak those words in the back of my mind many times over my professional career, and my sons have heard it on more than one occasion. Some food for thought, especially now.

Fun Fact: Speaking of gambling, did you know the “Las Vegas Strip” is technically not in the city limits of Las Vegas but instead in the unincorporated towns of Paradise and Winchester in Clark County, Nevada.

My Biggest Financial Challenge (And I Am Not Alone)

I feel like I’ve got a good grip on our family’s finances. I have done my job making sure that our investments are well-diversified and meet our risk tolerance. My wife usually agrees – as she did last weekend when we were in Chicago. Just before she purchased a rather expensive coat, she looked at my son, nodded toward me and announced, “my financial planner says I can buy this.” (I didn’t argue because she was right). When you add the fact that my wife and I are more savers than spenders — that is when we are not in Chicago — we are in a good place financially.

For me, my wife and a lot of other folks, the problem isn’t on the saving end; it’s on the spending end. I’m afraid I’ll never quite be comfortable with spending the money we saved and invested for retirement. If you are a client of mine, you know about Bill Bengen and the 4% rule. I crunch the 4% rule numbers all the time not only for clients but also for myself and my wife. And each time I come to the same conclusion: our typical monthly budget is far below what Bill Bengen says we can spend. For some reason, even though I crunch the numbers and come to that conclusion, at some point tomorrow I will re-run the numbers again…just to make sure.

I also often need to remind myself that the 4% rule is the absolute safest withdrawal rate and it assumes everything bad that can happen does happen. The 4% rule lives in the world of a 99% success rate. If you’re willing to be a little less cautious, you can substantially increase the withdrawal rate. If you can live with a 75% success rate, you can withdraw over 6%. Heck, even a 10% withdrawal rate still has a 50% success rate under the 4% rule analysis.

For some people, crunching and re-crunching the numbers probably amounts to paranoia. That’s according to Jordan Grumet who has a blog called The Purpose Code. In a recent post called “Stop Chickening Out” Grumet reminds folks that retirement in itself is a leap of faith. Anyone already in retirement knows that is true. Drawing down your assets during retirement is also a leap of faith. Only time will tell if you got it right.

The number of withdrawal strategies are almost infinite if you’re willing to look. Guardrails, 30-year TIPS ladder, safe bucket approach, they go on and on. I find one of the most valuable things I can provide to people who are right on the cusp of retirement is confidence and courage that they will be okay. I know they will because I’ve objectively crunched the numbers and worked with retirees over my decades-long financial planning experience. But I also know the emotional block because despite all of my objective evidence, I still get hesitant on the personal side. I think it’s just human nature.

I’ll end with my favorite quote from Grumet’s article: “People don’t talk about this enough, but the hardest part of retirement isn’t the math—it’s the courage.” Courage to start a new life post work, courage to start spending money you’ve worked hard to save and courage to stick to your plan when the market inevitably drops.

If you feel hesitant about spending your money in retirement and you keep running the numbers, remember that you’re not alone. A good financial planner can help you create that invaluable courage you need for the next steps. Or perhaps you can just look to your spouse for support. I’m sure it won’t be long before I hear my wife telling one of my sons that her “financial planner” gave her the thumbs up for the next big purchase. (She’ll probably be right).

Fun Fact: Speaking of courage, perhaps you’ve heard of Alex Honnold. He’s the mountain climber who was the subject of the National Geographic documentary Free Solo. In 2017 Alex successfully scaled Yosemite’s 3,000 foot El Capitan without ropes or safety gear. If you get a chance, it’s a must watch. When asked about the challenges of the climb, Alex said the following: “The big challenge is controlling your mind, I guess.” Hmm, sounds familiar.